Pharos Network FDV above ___ one day after launch?
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 43% across 16 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
43%
16 contracts
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$14K
16 contracts
Closes
Jan 1, 2028
602 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
7 clusters across 16 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Opensea FDV above ___ one day after launch
Opensea FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $1B
0xe67c94…9b7f
Opensea FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $5B
0xc20be6…06a8
Opensea FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $2B
0xb8a883…b2a3
Opensea FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $100M
0x9027a1…7800
Cluster 2
Variational FDV above ___ one day after launch
Cluster 3
Solstice FDV above ___ one day after launch
Cluster 4
Predict.fun FDV above ___ one day after launch
Cluster 5
Metamask FDV above ___ one day after launch
Metamask FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $1B
0xb0dafd…cee8
Cluster 6
Extended FDV above ___ one day after launch
Extended FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $500M
0x7fd2f5…8ca8
Cluster 7
GRVT FDV above ___ one day after launch
GRVT FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $800M
0x49a713…279f
What moved the line
- May 7$100M↓11pp70→59¢ · Polymarket
- May 6$500M↑7pp44→51¢ · Polymarket
- May 6$800M↑6pp18→24¢ · Polymarket
- May 6$200M↑6pp24→30¢ · Polymarket
- May 2$100M↑4pp69→73¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in general
- What will Donald Trump say during CNBClast 95% · 1d
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms: D Senate, R Houselast 3% · 1d
- Will any member of Trump's Cabinet leave before Aug 2026last 85% · 1d
- What will any participating candidate say during South Carolina GOP gubernatorial debatenolast 7% · 1d
- FC Gifu vs. Matsumoto Yamaga FC - More Marketslast 74% · 2d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.