What is the current probability for "Extended FDV above $800M one day after launch?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 9¢ (9% implied probability) on Polymarket. It closes on January 1, 2027. 245 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Extended FDV above $800M one day after launch?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 1509.4% and 14.8% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Extended FDV above $800M one day after launch?"?

This market trades on Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Extended FDV above $800M one day after launch?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 9% probability that Extended FDV above $800M one day after launch?. This contract trades at 9¢ on Polymarket, closing January 1, 2027.

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9¢

Bid/Ask 8/10¢·Spread 2¢·Vol $1,558·OI $9,055.644·Closes Jan 1, 2027·245d remaining

0x004230fb1f54a139d50ba2041e062a01461c931a6725ce482e3a9ab61b2925bb

7-day price126 snapshots · 32 regime

53¢9¢ current

Apr 85¢Apr 28

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Extended's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Extended (https://x.com/extendedapp) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Indicators

IY (Yes) 1509.4%

IY (No) 14.8%

Adj IY 587%

CRI 10

Overround 0.4%

LAS 0.22

▶ Full indicator table (6)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	1509.4%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	14.8%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	587%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	10	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	0.4%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.22	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.568

Computed

5/1/2026, 12:04:41 PM

Observability highEvent type financial

Has orderbookIndicators computed 5/1/2026, 11:53:26 AM

Trade

View on polymarket →sf trade 0x004230fb1f54a139d50ba2041e062a01461c931a6725ce482e3a9ab61b2925bb yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

Trade

Related concepts

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