Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch?
Prediction markets currently give a 69% probability that Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch?. This contract trades at 69¢ on Polymarket, closing January 1, 2027. The 64¢ price reflects a moderately bullish outlook on Extended reaching a $150M+ FDV within 24 hours of launch, though the asymmetric yield structure—with No holders capturing 240% annualized versus 82.8% for Yes—suggests the market is pricing in meaningful execution risk.
Analysis
The 64¢ price reflects a moderately bullish outlook on Extended reaching a $150M+ FDV within 24 hours of launch, though the asymmetric yield structure—with No holders capturing 240% annualized versus 82.8% for Yes—suggests the market is pricing in meaningful execution risk. With $35.2M open interest but only $2.6K daily volume and a 3¢ spread, liquidity is thin relative to OI, creating potential slippage concerns for larger positions. The 127% realized volatility and elevated Vol Ratio of 1.35 indicate this market experiences significant price swings, likely driven by launch timing uncertainty and token performance expectations over the 259-day window.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Extended's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Extended (https://x.com/extendedapp) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0x45514e0fcd922a740e67ab064a9042d3e964006712f9540947808ae82067ed23 yes 100