Will Raissa Butkowski win the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives?

This market shows extreme volatility and pricing distortion, with the Yes contract collapsing 58% over seven days (from 50¢ to 11¢) while maintaining a staggering 6249% implied yield—suggesting severe illiquidity and potential mispricing rather than genuine probability assessment. The $0 24-hour volume combined with $6.1M open interest and a 6¢ spread indicates the market is essentially frozen, making the 11¢ price potentially unreliable as a true probability estimate. With 22 days to expiry and a realized volatility of 5392%, this appears to be a thin, illiquid market where large positions may be driving prices rather than fundamental information about Butkowski's electoral prospects.

Resolution rules

A by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives is expected to take place on May 9, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Australian Government, specifically the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) (https://www.aec.gov.au/).

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