Will Austria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Prediction markets currently give a 16% probability that Will Austria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?. This contract trades at 16¢ on Polymarket, closing June 27, 2026. Austria's 16¢ price reflects a modest 16% win probability for Group J, but the market shows extreme volatility with 1019% realized volatility and an unusually high 2700% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting either mispricing or very thin liquidity at certain price levels.
Analysis
Austria's 16¢ price reflects a modest 16% win probability for Group J, but the market shows extreme volatility with 1019% realized volatility and an unusually high 2700% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting either mispricing or very thin liquidity at certain price levels. The 5¢ spread and $17.7M open interest indicate reasonable depth, though the 24-hour volume of $199K is modest relative to OI, and the Cliff Risk Index of 5 signals potential sharp moves as the June 11 group stage approaches. The price has risen 3¢ over seven days with an info arrival rate of 1.8/hour, suggesting active repricing as World Cup qualification results and team news emerge.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the team that wins Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup group stage, scheduled for June 11-27, 2026. If multiple teams tie as group winners, this market will resolve according to the official tiebreak procedure of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If the World Cup group stage is cancelled, postponed after September 30, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared for this group within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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sf trade 0xf8e8b9cd02f6658ad6011530ece2650290aa528c8e27c8e6ea16e742d4e764f7 yes 100