Will the Republican Party win the FL-17 House seat?

The Republican contract is pricing in an 86% win probability with a notably asymmetric implied yield structure—the No side offers an extreme 1121.5% yield versus just 29.7% for Yes, suggesting the market heavily favors the Republican outcome but compensates contrarian bettors with outsized returns on a long-shot Democratic win. With only $0 in 24-hour volume despite $15k open interest and 200 days to expiry, this market shows minimal liquidity and price discovery, making the 86¢ price potentially unreliable as a true probability estimate. The 6 Cliff Risk Index and extreme risk-adjusted yield of 561% indicate substantial tail risk, likely reflecting uncertainty about candidate quality, primary outcomes, or district-level demographic shifts that could materially shift the race before November 2026.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-17 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade