Will the Republicans win the Florida Senate race in 2026?

The market is pricing Republicans at a substantial 79% win probability, but the extremely high realized volatility of 178% combined with a modest 24-hour volume of just $18.9 suggests thin liquidity and potential for sharp repricing as new information arrives at 1.3 events per hour. The 3-cent spread is reasonable given the price level, though the moderate Cliff Risk Index of 4 and neutral regime score indicate this isn't currently a crisis point despite the 3-cent decline over seven days. With over $22M in open interest and nearly two years until the November 2026 resolution, this market appears fairly priced but vulnerable to volatility spikes on limited volume.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Florida U.S. Senate election special election currently scheduled for November 3, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

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