Will Sam Couvillon be the Republican nominee for GA-09?

This market displays extreme yield asymmetry with Yes contracts offering an extraordinary 11,282% annualized return against just 110.4% for No, suggesting severe underpricing of Couvillon's nomination odds relative to the market's 9% baseline. The 7-cent spread is notably wide for a $7.6M open interest position, and the astronomical realized volatility of 3,762% combined with a Cliff Risk Index of 10 indicates this contract experiences violent price swings near the May 19 resolution date—likely driven by primary election developments and candidate announcements. With only 33 days to expiry and a 3.0/hour information arrival rate, any significant campaign news could trigger rapid repricing, making this a high-risk, high-reward contrarian bet for those believing Couvillon's true nomination probability exceeds 9%.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the GA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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