Game 4: Boston at Philadelphia Winner?

The Boston contract is trading at a steep 79¢ with an extraordinarily skewed yield profile—519% for Yes versus 5,817% for No—reflecting extreme confidence in a Boston victory, though the modest $1,395.53 open interest suggests thin liquidity that could amplify moves. The market has rallied 13 cents over seven days amid a neutral regime and 266% realized volatility, indicating significant uncertainty despite the lopsided pricing, and with 21 days to expiry and only $819 in daily volume, any new information could trigger sharp repricing in this low-liquidity venue.

Resolution rules

If Boston wins the Game 4: Boston at Philadelphia professional basketball game originally scheduled for Apr 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

Regime

Trade