Game 4: Pittsburgh at Philadelphia Winner?
Prediction markets currently give a 61% probability that Game 4: Pittsburgh at Philadelphia Winner?. This contract trades at 61¢ on Kalshi, closing May 10, 2026. This market shows extreme yield metrics (1973% implied yield on the Yes side) driven by minimal liquidity ($155 open interest) and a tight 3¢ spread, creating outsized percentage returns on small dollar movements rather than reflecting genuine probability shifts.
Analysis
This market shows extreme yield metrics (1973% implied yield on the Yes side) driven by minimal liquidity ($155 open interest) and a tight 3¢ spread, creating outsized percentage returns on small dollar movements rather than reflecting genuine probability shifts. The 7-day price movement from 37¢ to 47¢ represents a 27% swing, consistent with the 2024% realized volatility and 3.83 vol ratio, suggesting this is a thin, volatile contract where large percentage moves occur on modest volume ($169 in 24h). With 21 days to expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 1, the market is approaching the resolution date for an April 25, 2026 game, making this a near-term event contract where information arrival (3.0/hour) could drive further price discovery.
Resolution rules
If PHI Flyers wins the Game 4: Pittsburgh at Philadelphia professional hockey game scheduled for Apr 25, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXNHLGAME-26APR25PITPHI-PHI yes 100