What is the current probability for "Will Vicente Ada win the 2026 Guam Governor Republican primary election?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 77¢ (77% implied probability) on Polymarket. It closes on August 1, 2026. 101 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Vicente Ada win the 2026 Guam Governor Republican primary election?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 114.5% and 1147.8% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Will Vicente Ada win the 2026 Guam Governor Republican primary election?

Prediction markets currently give a 77% probability that Will Vicente Ada win the 2026 Guam Governor Republican primary election?. This contract trades at 77¢ on Polymarket, closing August 1, 2026.

███████████████████████████████░░░░░░░░░

77¢

Bid/Ask 72/82¢·Spread 10¢·Vol $0·OI $4,477.534·Closes Aug 1, 2026·101d remaining

0x73ff7789989688f99810a16020072cadd8cc7770a1912045f5db08c13fc32382

7-day price272 snapshots · 5 regime

83¢76¢ current

Apr 1071¢Apr 22

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Guam, scheduled to take place on August 1, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Guam Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Guam Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 114.5%

IY (No) 1147.8%

Adj IY 997%

CRI 3

RV 428%

VR 4.06

▶ Full indicator table (8)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	114.5%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	1147.8%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	997%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	3	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	428%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	4.06	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	2.9/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
LAS	0.13	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

10¢

Computed

4/22/2026, 7:11:24 AM

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/22/2026, 7:08:33 AM

Trade

View on polymarket →sf trade 0x73ff7789989688f99810a16020072cadd8cc7770a1912045f5db08c13fc32382 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

Trade

Related concepts

Related Prediction Market Questions