Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by December 31?

The market is pricing an extremely high 95% probability that Colombian President Gustavo Petro will leave office by end-2026, yet this conviction is contradicted by anemic 24-hour volume of just $237 and a massive 1,344% risk-adjusted implied yield on the "No" side, suggesting severe illiquidity and potential mispricing rather than genuine consensus. The 1¢ spread is deceptively tight given the thin order book, and the astronomical 2,688% yield on betting against removal indicates the market may be overweighting tail risks or suffering from low participation. With 258 days to expiry and zero price movement over the past week, this appears to be a stale, low-conviction market where the extreme probability reflects limited trading depth rather than fundamental political instability in Colombia.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Gustavo Petro ceases to be President of Colombia for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Gustavo Petro's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Gustavo Petro and the government of Colombia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Indicators

Regime

Trade