Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026?

Prediction markets currently give a 4% probability that Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026?. This contract trades at 4¢ on Polymarket, closing December 31, 2026.

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4¢
Bid/Ask 4/4¢·Spread 1¢·Vol $9,786.009·OI $31,534.585·Closes Dec 31, 2026·253d remaining
0xec181db4470b152493b58229862af3f6335b77cc719f5a0e7ed58c9f9848b992
7-day price47 snapshots · 47 regime
16¢4¢ current
Apr 83¢Apr 21

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the title of the film with the highest 2026 gross according to the "Gross" column on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/2026/?grossesOption=calendarGrosses once data for December 31 is made available. Note: This market is about the movie's domestic calendar gross in 2026 - dates outside of 2026 will not count toward this movie's gross. In the event of an exact tie the film that comes first alphabetically will be considered the winner. If there is no final data available by January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 3460.4%
IY (No) 6.0%
Adj IY 1298%
CRI 24
Overround -0.0%
LAS 0.25
▶ Full indicator table (6)
IndicatorValue
IY (Yes)3460.4%
IY (No)6.0%
Adj IY1298%
CRI24
Overround-0.0%
LAS0.25

Regime

Label
neutral
Score
0.341
Spread
1¢
Computed
4/21/2026, 8:29:00 PM
Observability lowEvent type cultural
Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/21/2026, 8:23:18 PM

Trade

View on polymarketsf trade 0xec181db4470b152493b58229862af3f6335b77cc719f5a0e7ed58c9f9848b992 yes 100

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