What will be the highest grossing movie in 2026?
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 25% across 10 contracts. Kalshi at 19%, Polymarket at 30% — a 11pp cross-venue gap.
Implied probability
Kalshi
19%
4 contracts
Polymarket
30%
6 contracts
Cross-venue gap
11pp
wide divergence
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$14K
10 contracts
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
206 days
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 19¢ · Polymarket 30¢ · 11pp spread
Buy on Kalshi (19¢, 4 contracts) and sell on Polymarket (30¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
6 clusters across 10 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 22% of their title tokens — “Highest grossing movie in 2026” vs “Which movie has biggest opening weekend in 2026”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Highest grossing movie in 2026
Highest grossing movie in 2026?: Spider-Man: Brand New Day
0xc4b079…6c57
Highest grossing movie in 2026?: The Super Mario Galaxy Movie
0xec181d…b992
Highest grossing movie in 2026?: Avengers: Doomsday
0xe4f4b6…6e6f
Highest grossing movie in 2026?: Toy Story 5
0xcd57f3…c170
Cluster 2
Which movie has biggest opening weekend in 2026
Cluster 3
Will Donald Trump leave office before August 1, 2026
Will Donald Trump leave office before August 1, 2026?: Before August 1, 2026
KXTRUMPOUT27-27-26AUG01
Cluster 4
Will Nancy Pelosi resign her office early
Will Nancy Pelosi resign her office early?: Before election day 2026
KXRETIREPELOSI-26
Cluster 5
Will Mitch McConnell resign his office early
Will Mitch McConnell resign his office early?: Before election day 2026
KXRETIREMM-26
Cluster 6
Will Miguel Díaz-Canel leave office before 2026-09-01T14:00:00.000Z
Will Miguel Díaz-Canel leave office before 2026-09-01T14:00:00.000Z?: Before September 1, 2026
KXDIAZOUT-MDC-26SEP01
What moved the line
- Jun 3Before September 1, 2026↓5pp53→48¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 2Avengers: Doomsday↑3pp17→20¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 8Avengers: Doomsday↓3pp17→14¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 6Before September 1, 2026↑3pp49→52¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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