3 source contracts·Kalshi 3·refreshed just now·Closes Nov 3, 2026 · 98d·↓2pp · 29h

What will be the highest grossing movie in 2026?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 8% across 3 Kalshi contracts.

Implied probability

0%50%100%

Kalshi

3 contracts

Polymarket

—

not bound

Cross-venue gap

—

single venue

24h move

−2pp

29h ago

24h volume

$116K

3 contracts

Closes

Nov 3, 2026

98 days

Open top contract Read answer

Source contractsPriceVolume

Will Mitch McConnell resign his office early?: Before election day 202614¢$113K Will Nancy Pelosi resign her office early?: Before election day 20266¢$2K Will Miguel Díaz-Canel leave office before 2026-09-01T14:00:00.000Z?: Before September 1, 20265¢$443

30-day trend

Aggregate of 3 contracts · 31d

Bracket families

3 clusters across 3 contracts.

These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.

Cluster 1

Will Mitch McConnell resign his office early

1 contract$113K

OutcomePrice24hVolumeVenueDetail

Will Mitch McConnell resign his office early?: Before election day 2026

KXRETIREMM-26

14¢+2pp$113KK→

Cluster 2

Will Nancy Pelosi resign her office early

1 contract$2K

OutcomePrice24hVolumeVenueDetail

Will Nancy Pelosi resign her office early?: Before election day 2026

KXRETIREPELOSI-26

6¢±0$2KK→

Cluster 3

Will Miguel Díaz-Canel leave office before 2026-09-01T14:00:00.000Z

1 contract$443

OutcomePrice24hVolumeVenueDetail

Will Miguel Díaz-Canel leave office before 2026-09-01T14:00:00.000Z?: Before September 1, 2026

KXDIAZOUT-MDC-26SEP01

5¢−1pp$443K→

What moved the line

Jul 27Before election day 2026↓5pp16→11¢ · Kalshi
Jul 22Before election day 2026↑3pp12→15¢ · Kalshi
Jul 21Before September 1, 2026↓3pp8→5¢ · Kalshi
Jul 23Before September 1, 2026↑3pp5→8¢ · Kalshi

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

Adjacent prediction questions.

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

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