What will be the highest grossing movie in 2026?
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 12% across 15 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
12%
15 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$14K
15 contracts
Closes
Nov 3, 2026
45 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
15 clusters across 15 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 8% of their title tokens — “Will Avengers: Doomsday have the highest Rotten Tomatoes score among Dune: Part Three and Avengers: Doomsday on Dec 21, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET” vs “Will Why Did I Get Married Again? be #2 US Netflix Movie on Sep 21, 2026”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the highest Rotten Tomatoes score among Dune: Part Three and Avengers: Doomsday on Dec 21, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET
Cluster 2
Will Why Did I Get Married Again? be #2 US Netflix Movie on Sep 21, 2026
Will Why Did I Get Married Again? be #2 US Netflix Movie on Sep 21, 2026?
KXNETFLIXRANKMOVIERUNNERUP-26SEP21-WHY
Cluster 3
Will Those Who Wish Me Dead be #2 US Netflix Movie on Sep 21, 2026
Will Those Who Wish Me Dead be #2 US Netflix Movie on Sep 21, 2026?
KXNETFLIXRANKMOVIERUNNERUP-26SEP21-THO
Cluster 4
Will The Whisper Man be #2 US Netflix Movie on Sep 21, 2026
Will The Whisper Man be #2 US Netflix Movie on Sep 21, 2026?
KXNETFLIXRANKMOVIERUNNERUP-26SEP21-THE
Cluster 5
Will Untold Mr. T: I Pity The Fool be #2 US Netflix Movie on Sep 21, 2026
Will Untold Mr. T: I Pity The Fool be #2 US Netflix Movie on Sep 21, 2026?
KXNETFLIXRANKMOVIERUNNERUP-26SEP21-UNT
Cluster 6
Will Dune: Part Three have the highest Rotten Tomatoes score among Dune: Part Three and Avengers: Doomsday on Dec 21, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET
Cluster 7
Will The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare be #2 US Netflix Movie on Sep 21, 2026
Cluster 8
Will Turning Point: Generation 9/11 be #2 US Netflix Movie on Sep 21, 2026
Will Turning Point: Generation 9/11 be #2 US Netflix Movie on Sep 21, 2026?
KXNETFLIXRANKMOVIERUNNERUP-26SEP21-TUR
Cluster 9
Will The AI Doc: Or How I Became an Apocaloptimist be #2 US Netflix Movie on Sep 21, 2026
Cluster 10
Will Contraband be #2 US Netflix Movie on Sep 21, 2026
Will Contraband be #2 US Netflix Movie on Sep 21, 2026?
KXNETFLIXRANKMOVIERUNNERUP-26SEP21-CON
Cluster 11
Will Girl Climber be #2 US Netflix Movie on Sep 21, 2026
Will Girl Climber be #2 US Netflix Movie on Sep 21, 2026?
KXNETFLIXRANKMOVIERUNNERUP-26SEP21-GIR
Cluster 12
Will The Angry Birds Movie 2 be #2 US Netflix Movie on Sep 21, 2026
Will The Angry Birds Movie 2 be #2 US Netflix Movie on Sep 21, 2026?
KXNETFLIXRANKMOVIERUNNERUP-26SEP21-THEA
Cluster 13
Will Ready or Not be #2 US Netflix Movie on Sep 21, 2026
Will Ready or Not be #2 US Netflix Movie on Sep 21, 2026?
KXNETFLIXRANKMOVIERUNNERUP-26SEP21-REA
Cluster 14
Will Shark Tale be #2 US Netflix Movie on Sep 21, 2026
Will Shark Tale be #2 US Netflix Movie on Sep 21, 2026?
KXNETFLIXRANKMOVIERUNNERUP-26SEP21-SHA
Cluster 15
Will The Secret Woman be #2 US Netflix Movie on Sep 21, 2026
Will The Secret Woman be #2 US Netflix Movie on Sep 21, 2026?
KXNETFLIXRANKMOVIERUNNERUP-26SEP21-THES
What moved the line
- Sep 18Part Three have the highest Rotten Tomatoes score among Dune: Part Three and Avengers: Doomsday on Dec 21, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET↓25pp83→58¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17Doomsday have the highest Rotten Tomatoes score among Dune: Part Three and Avengers: Doomsday on Dec 21, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET↑4pp12→16¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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