Highest grossing movie in 2026

Analysis

This 37% probability reflects the market's assessment that a single film will generate more theatrical revenue than all others released in 2026. Two major films dominate current betting: Spider-Man: Brand New Day at 68¢ and Toy Story 5 at 4¢ on Polymarket, suggesting significant confidence in Spider-Man's commercial performance. The probability reflects uncertainty about whether either tentpole will outpace competitors expected later in 2026, including potential releases from established franchises. The gap between venues (Kalshi 38%, Polymarket 36%) is minimal, indicating broad market consensus. Resolution hinges on actual box office performance through year-end, with major releases typically arriving in summer and holiday windows providing key data points to update expectations.

• ›Spider-Man: Brand New Day contract trading at 68¢ suggests market expects it to be the year's top earner, but this alone only accounts for roughly two-thirds of the 37% probability
• ›No film currently has dominant probability positioning; the highest individual contract is 68¢, indicating genuine uncertainty about which title will ultimately lead
• ›Trading volume on highest-grossing contracts ($825-$3,321 in 24h volume) is substantially lower than Netflix-specific contracts, suggesting limited conviction or smaller trader participation
• ›The May 4 Netflix contracts show heavy activity ($2,595 volume on Apex) but address a near-term specific event rather than full-year gross revenue
• ›2026 still has 7+ months of releases remaining, meaning undisclosed or late-arriving blockbusters could significantly shift probabilities

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds