Highest grossing movie in 2026
Leader sits at 56% across 5 bound outcomes, runner-up at 17%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Spider-Man: Brand New Day
Outcomes
5
winner-take-all
Runner-up
17¢
Avengers: Doomsday
Spread
39pp
contested
24h volume
$11K
liquid
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
207 days
Venue
Polymarket
5 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Highest grossing movie in 2026
Highest grossing movie in 2026?: The Odyssey
0x6ec4fe…b662
Highest grossing movie in 2026?: The Super Mario Galaxy Movie
0xec181d…b992
Highest grossing movie in 2026?: Avengers: Doomsday
0xe4f4b6…6e6f
Highest grossing movie in 2026?: Toy Story 5
0xcd57f3…c170
Highest grossing movie in 2026?: Spider-Man: Brand New Day
0xc4b079…6c57
Analysis
This 37% probability reflects the market's assessment that a single film will generate more theatrical revenue than all others released in 2026. Two major films dominate current betting: Spider-Man: Brand New Day at 68¢ and Toy Story 5 at 4¢ on Polymarket, suggesting significant confidence in Spider-Man's commercial performance. The probability reflects uncertainty about whether either tentpole will outpace competitors expected later in 2026, including potential releases from established franchises. The gap between venues (Kalshi 38%, Polymarket 36%) is minimal, indicating broad market consensus. Resolution hinges on actual box office performance through year-end, with major releases typically arriving in summer and holiday windows providing key data points to update expectations.
- ›Spider-Man: Brand New Day contract trading at 68¢ suggests market expects it to be the year's top earner, but this alone only accounts for roughly two-thirds of the 37% probability
- ›No film currently has dominant probability positioning; the highest individual contract is 68¢, indicating genuine uncertainty about which title will ultimately lead
- ›Trading volume on highest-grossing contracts ($825-$3,321 in 24h volume) is substantially lower than Netflix-specific contracts, suggesting limited conviction or smaller trader participation
- ›The May 4 Netflix contracts show heavy activity ($2,595 volume on Apex) but address a near-term specific event rather than full-year gross revenue
- ›2026 still has 7+ months of releases remaining, meaning undisclosed or late-arriving blockbusters could significantly shift probabilities
What moved the line
- Jun 2Avengers: Doomsday↑3pp17→20¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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