What is the current probability for "Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 3¢ (3% implied probability) on Polymarket. It closes on December 31, 2026. 253 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 4665.2% and 4.5% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026?"?

This market trades on Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 3% probability that Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026?. This contract trades at 3¢ on Polymarket, closing December 31, 2026.

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3¢

Bid/Ask 3/3¢·Spread 0¢·Vol $6,374.153·OI $55,253.181·Closes Dec 31, 2026·253d remaining

0xcd57f3ad3bbbdaa96aacabd35f50c2d6e30f777e4a33876a4ab2dcd9f0b8c170

7-day price17 snapshots · 57 regime

4¢3¢ current

Apr 143¢Apr 21

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the title of the film with the highest 2026 gross according to the "Gross" column on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/2026/?grossesOption=calendarGrosses once data for December 31 is made available. Note: This market is about the movie's domestic calendar gross in 2026 - dates outside of 2026 will not count toward this movie's gross. In the event of an exact tie the film that comes first alphabetically will be considered the winner. If there is no final data available by January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 4665.2%

IY (No) 4.5%

Adj IY 2333%

CRI 32

Overround -0.0%

LAS 0.00

▶ Full indicator table (6)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	4665.2%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	4.5%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	2333%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	32	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	-0.0%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.00	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.341

Spread

0¢

Computed

4/22/2026, 12:48:08 AM

Observability lowEvent type cultural

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/22/2026, 12:38:18 AM

Trade

View on polymarket →sf trade 0xcd57f3ad3bbbdaa96aacabd35f50c2d6e30f777e4a33876a4ab2dcd9f0b8c170 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

Trade

Related concepts

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