Will there be exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?

This market shows extreme mispricing with a 1974% implied yield on the "Yes" side, suggesting the 20¢ price substantially undervalues the probability of exactly 7 magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes over 7 months—historically, Earth averages roughly 15 such quakes annually, making 7 in that timeframe quite plausible. The sharp 122% price surge over 7 days (9¢ to 20¢) combined with low 24-hour volume of just $312 and modest $6K open interest indicates thin liquidity and potential for significant slippage, while the elevated realized volatility of 447% and cliff risk index of 4 suggest this market may be prone to sudden repricing as new seismic data arrives. With 74 days to expiry and an information arrival rate of 0.5 events per hour, traders should monitor USGS earthquake reports closely, as any cluster of magnitude 7.0+ events could dramatically shift the probability of hitting exactly 7.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between December 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.

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