Over 6 coins launched in 2026 end the year in the top 100?
Prediction markets currently give a 49% probability that Over 6 coins launched in 2026 end the year in the top 100?. This contract trades at 49¢ on Polymarket, closing January 1, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $308k open interest, creating a massive 68¢ bid-ask spread that inflates both the Yes (120%) and No (165%) implied yields.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $308k open interest, creating a massive 68¢ bid-ask spread that inflates both the Yes (120%) and No (165%) implied yields. The 665% realized volatility and 5.96 vol ratio suggest highly erratic pricing, likely driven by infrequent large trades rather than genuine probability shifts, making the current 54¢ price potentially unreliable for fair value assessment. With 259 days to expiration and a neutral regime, the market lacks sufficient trading activity to generate meaningful price discovery, though the high information arrival rate (3.0/h) indicates active discussion that hasn't yet translated into volume.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026, the number of coins launched in 2026 that appear in the top 100 by market capitalization on CoinGecko is greater than the number specified in the title. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.” The resolution source is CoinGecko’s Top 100 market cap rankings (https://www.coingecko.com/). Stablecoins, liquid staking tokens (LSTs), liquidity pool tokens, and synthetic representations of other assets will not qualify.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0x022a45ba6957b5ade426720527f43577439948c2225d4f89b2b9fda32c582e70 yes 100