What is the current probability for "Over 8 coins launched in 2026 end the year in the top 100?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 48¢ (48% implied probability) on Polymarket. It closes on January 1, 2027. 246 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Over 8 coins launched in 2026 end the year in the top 100?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 160.5% and 136.8% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Over 8 coins launched in 2026 end the year in the top 100?"?

This market trades on Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Over 8 coins launched in 2026 end the year in the top 100?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 48% probability that Over 8 coins launched in 2026 end the year in the top 100?. This contract trades at 48¢ on Polymarket, closing January 1, 2027.

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48¢

Bid/Ask 2/94¢·Spread 92¢·Vol $0·OI $83.2·Closes Jan 1, 2027·246d remaining

0x4cd2efcda453640482f78b9ca16d49f3e6c4d1411b434d262ac7c11674db3000

7-day price730 snapshots · 6 regime

52¢48¢ current

Apr 828¢Apr 29

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026, the number of coins launched in 2026 that appear in the top 100 by market capitalization on CoinGecko is greater than the number specified in the title. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.” The resolution source is CoinGecko’s Top 100 market cap rankings (https://www.coingecko.com/). Stablecoins, liquid staking tokens (LSTs), liquidity pool tokens, and synthetic representations of other assets will not qualify.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 160.5%

IY (No) 136.8%

Adj IY 80%

CRI 1

Overround 1.6%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	160.5%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	136.8%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	80%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	1	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	1.6%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

92¢

Computed

4/29/2026, 3:40:38 PM

Indicators computed 4/29/2026, 3:38:26 PM

Trade

View on polymarket →sf trade 0x4cd2efcda453640482f78b9ca16d49f3e6c4d1411b434d262ac7c11674db3000 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

Trade

Related concepts

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