Will the US strike 7 countries in 2026?

The 31¢ price reflects a modest 31% probability of seven US strikes across different countries in 2026, yet the Yes side offers an exceptional 315% implied yield—suggesting either significant underpricing or market skepticism about the threshold's achievability. With $13.6M open interest but only $416K in 24-hour volume, liquidity is relatively thin for the position size, and the elevated 217% realized volatility indicates substantial price swings despite the neutral regime. The market has drifted down 2¢ over seven days with 258 days to expiry, leaving ample time for geopolitical developments to shift pricing, though the low 0.5/h information arrival rate suggests limited near-term catalysts are currently priced in.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent. Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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