How many freshmen players will be drafted in the top 10?
Prediction markets currently give a 96% probability that How many freshmen players will be drafted in the top 10?. This contract trades at 96¢ on Kalshi, closing July 10, 2026. This market is pricing in an extremely high probability (99%) that at least 4 freshmen will be drafted in the top 10 of the 2026 NBA Draft, yet the zero 24-hour volume and minimal $121 open interest suggest severe illiquidity and potential mispricing.
Analysis
This market is pricing in an extremely high probability (99%) that at least 4 freshmen will be drafted in the top 10 of the 2026 NBA Draft, yet the zero 24-hour volume and minimal $121 open interest suggest severe illiquidity and potential mispricing. The asymmetric implied yields—18.1% for Yes versus an astronomical 10,426.7% for No—indicate the No side is severely underpriced relative to its tail risk, though the high Cliff Risk Index of 24 suggests meaningful uncertainty exists despite the consensus pricing. With 84 days to expiry and no recent price movement from 96¢, this appears to be a stale market where the extreme Yes probability may not reflect genuine market conviction but rather a lack of informed trading activity.
Resolution rules
If at least 4 freshmen are drafted in the top 10 of the 2026 Pro Basketball Draft, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXNBADRAFTCAT-26FRE-4 yes 100