How many freshmen players will be drafted in the top 10?
Prediction markets currently give a 91% probability that How many freshmen players will be drafted in the top 10?. This contract trades at 91¢ on Kalshi, closing July 10, 2026. This market is pricing in an extremely high probability (91%) that at least 7 of the top 10 draft picks will be freshmen, yet it shows zero 24-hour volume with only $336 in open interest, suggesting minimal conviction behind the price.
Analysis
This market is pricing in an extremely high probability (91%) that at least 7 of the top 10 draft picks will be freshmen, yet it shows zero 24-hour volume with only $336 in open interest, suggesting minimal conviction behind the price. The massive 4,394.9% implied yield on the No side indicates severe mispricing—if even one fewer freshman enters the top 10 than expected, No holders would see extraordinary returns, yet the market remains illiquid and stagnant. With 84 days to the 7/10/2026 close and a high cliff risk index of 10, this appears to be a thin, potentially abandoned market where the consensus price may not reflect true market sentiment.
Resolution rules
If at least 7 freshmen are drafted in the top 10 of the 2026 Pro Basketball Draft, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXNBADRAFTCAT-26FRE-7 yes 100