How many international-born players will be drafted in the 1st round?
Prediction markets currently give a 97% probability that How many international-born players will be drafted in the 1st round?. This contract trades at 97¢ on Kalshi, closing July 10, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and open interest, making the 0¢ price unreliable despite the seemingly rational 27.7% Yes yield.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and open interest, making the 0¢ price unreliable despite the seemingly rational 27.7% Yes yield. The astronomical 6806.3% implied yield on No suggests the market is essentially non-functional rather than pricing in genuine confidence that zero international players will be drafted in the first round. With 84 days to expiry and a 16 cliff risk index, this appears to be a nascent market awaiting liquidity rather than a meaningful prediction opportunity.
Resolution rules
If at least 1 international-born player is drafted in the 1st round of the 2026 Pro Basketball Draft, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXNBADRAFTCAT-26INT-1 yes 100