Will 7-8 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?

This market is severely mispriced at 3¢, implying only a 3% chance of 7-8 successful Starship launches in 2026—a threshold that appears achievable given SpaceX's current cadence of roughly one launch per month. The 4575% implied yield on the Yes side combined with zero 24-hour volume and a wide 5¢ spread suggests extreme illiquidity and potential market dysfunction rather than genuine probability assessment. The dramatic price collapse from 7¢ to 3¢ over seven days, paired with a realized volatility of 3327%, indicates this is a highly speculative, thinly-traded position where the extreme yield reflects illiquidity risk rather than fundamental undervaluation.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome. The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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