SimpleFunctions
Winner-take-all answer·7 source contracts·Polymarket 7·refreshed just now·Closes Dec 31, 2026 · 206d

How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?

Bracket<5

Leader sits at 60% across 7 bound outcomes, runner-up at 19%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

60%

<5

runner-up 19¢leader 60¢

Outcomes

7

winner-take-all

Runner-up

19¢

5-6

Spread

41pp

contested

24h volume

$456

thin orderbook

Closes

Dec 31, 2026

206 days

Venue

Polymarket

7 bound

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtoday<5: 60% (31 days, 29 points)<5: 60% on 2026-06-085-6: 19% (31 days, 28 points)5-6: 19% on 2026-06-0615-16: 5% (31 days, 23 points)15-16: 5% on 2026-06-08
<560¢5-619¢15-165¢
Top 3 candidates by current price · 31d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Analysis

This contract asks whether SpaceX will complete fewer than 5 Starship launches reaching space during 2026, currently priced at 66% likelihood. The prediction reflects uncertainty around SpaceX's testing cadence and regulatory approval timelines for orbital flights. Factors pushing probability higher include historical delays in licensing and technical issues; factors pushing it lower include SpaceX's demonstrated progress on rapid reusability and stated goals for multiple 2026 missions. The key near-term catalyst is whether SpaceX receives FAA approval for the next orbital test flight and achieves the timeline outlined in public statements. By mid-2026, actual launch manifest data will substantially narrow uncertainty about whether the company can sustain the launch pace needed to exceed 4 missions.

  • FAA licensing status for orbital test flights and environmental review completion timelines
  • Historical SpaceX launch cadence for Starship versus stated 2026 targets of 5+ missions
  • Vehicle readiness and manufacturing rates given turnaround times between flight tests
  • Unplanned downtime from technical issues, pad damage, or regulatory holds that could compress launch windows
  • Definition clarity: whether only orbital-velocity reaches count or suborbital test flights are included

What moved the line

  • Jun 25-68pp1826¢ · Polymarket
  • Jun 1<56pp6155¢ · Polymarket
  • Jun 7<56pp5561¢ · Polymarket
  • Jun 3>164pp48¢ · Polymarket
  • Jun 815-163pp25¢ · Polymarket

Recently closed in ai tech

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

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