SimpleFunctions
Winner-take-all answer·6 source contracts·Polymarket 6·refreshed just now·Closes Dec 31, 2026 · 215d

How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?

Bracket<5

Leader sits at 59% across 6 bound outcomes, runner-up at 19%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

59%

<5

runner-up 19¢leader 59¢

Outcomes

6

winner-take-all

Runner-up

19¢

5-6

Spread

40pp

contested

24h volume

$52

thin orderbook

Closes

Dec 31, 2026

215 days

Venue

Polymarket

6 bound

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtoday<5: 58% (29 days, 28 points)<5: 58% on 2026-05-305-6: 19% (29 days, 28 points)5-6: 19% on 2026-05-2913-14: 5% (29 days, 17 points)13-14: 5% on 2026-05-28
<558¢5-619¢13-145¢
Top 3 candidates by current price · 29d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Analysis

This contract asks whether SpaceX will complete fewer than 5 Starship launches reaching space during 2026, currently priced at 66% likelihood. The prediction reflects uncertainty around SpaceX's testing cadence and regulatory approval timelines for orbital flights. Factors pushing probability higher include historical delays in licensing and technical issues; factors pushing it lower include SpaceX's demonstrated progress on rapid reusability and stated goals for multiple 2026 missions. The key near-term catalyst is whether SpaceX receives FAA approval for the next orbital test flight and achieves the timeline outlined in public statements. By mid-2026, actual launch manifest data will substantially narrow uncertainty about whether the company can sustain the launch pace needed to exceed 4 missions.

  • FAA licensing status for orbital test flights and environmental review completion timelines
  • Historical SpaceX launch cadence for Starship versus stated 2026 targets of 5+ missions
  • Vehicle readiness and manufacturing rates given turnaround times between flight tests
  • Unplanned downtime from technical issues, pad damage, or regulatory holds that could compress launch windows
  • Definition clarity: whether only orbital-velocity reaches count or suborbital test flights are included

What moved the line

  • May 295-69pp2819¢ · Polymarket
  • May 25<53pp5255¢ · Polymarket
  • May 235-63pp2730¢ · Polymarket

Recently closed in ai tech

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Other questions in ai tech.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: just now.