How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?

30-day trend

Analysis

This contract asks whether SpaceX will complete fewer than 5 Starship launches reaching space during 2026, currently priced at 66% likelihood. The prediction reflects uncertainty around SpaceX's testing cadence and regulatory approval timelines for orbital flights. Factors pushing probability higher include historical delays in licensing and technical issues; factors pushing it lower include SpaceX's demonstrated progress on rapid reusability and stated goals for multiple 2026 missions. The key near-term catalyst is whether SpaceX receives FAA approval for the next orbital test flight and achieves the timeline outlined in public statements. By mid-2026, actual launch manifest data will substantially narrow uncertainty about whether the company can sustain the launch pace needed to exceed 4 missions.

• ›FAA licensing status for orbital test flights and environmental review completion timelines
• ›Historical SpaceX launch cadence for Starship versus stated 2026 targets of 5+ missions
• ›Vehicle readiness and manufacturing rates given turnaround times between flight tests
• ›Unplanned downtime from technical issues, pad damage, or regulatory holds that could compress launch windows
• ›Definition clarity: whether only orbital-velocity reaches count or suborbital test flights are included

What moved the line

• May 295-6↓9pp28→19¢ · Polymarket
• May 25<5↑3pp52→55¢ · Polymarket
• May 235-6↑3pp27→30¢ · Polymarket

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds