How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?
Leader sits at 60% across 7 bound outcomes, runner-up at 19%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
<5
Outcomes
7
winner-take-all
Runner-up
19¢
5-6
Spread
41pp
contested
24h volume
$456
thin orderbook
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
206 days
Venue
Polymarket
7 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026
How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?: 15-16
0x4f14f6…6950
How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?: 13-14
0x77e537…3a0c
How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?: <5
0xacff73…c3d5
How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?: 7-8
0xbab5a9…fdae
How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?: >16
0x1ee868…39b1
How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?: 9-10
0xed0620…4105
How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?: 5-6
0x1fc6eb…18c2
Analysis
This contract asks whether SpaceX will complete fewer than 5 Starship launches reaching space during 2026, currently priced at 66% likelihood. The prediction reflects uncertainty around SpaceX's testing cadence and regulatory approval timelines for orbital flights. Factors pushing probability higher include historical delays in licensing and technical issues; factors pushing it lower include SpaceX's demonstrated progress on rapid reusability and stated goals for multiple 2026 missions. The key near-term catalyst is whether SpaceX receives FAA approval for the next orbital test flight and achieves the timeline outlined in public statements. By mid-2026, actual launch manifest data will substantially narrow uncertainty about whether the company can sustain the launch pace needed to exceed 4 missions.
- ›FAA licensing status for orbital test flights and environmental review completion timelines
- ›Historical SpaceX launch cadence for Starship versus stated 2026 targets of 5+ missions
- ›Vehicle readiness and manufacturing rates given turnaround times between flight tests
- ›Unplanned downtime from technical issues, pad damage, or regulatory holds that could compress launch windows
- ›Definition clarity: whether only orbital-velocity reaches count or suborbital test flights are included
What moved the line
- Jun 25-6↑8pp18→26¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 1<5↓6pp61→55¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 7<5↑6pp55→61¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 3>16↑4pp4→8¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 815-16↑3pp2→5¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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