How many SpaceX Starship launches in 2026?
Leader sits at 59% across 6 bound outcomes, runner-up at 19%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
<5
Outcomes
6
winner-take-all
Runner-up
19¢
5-6
Spread
40pp
contested
24h volume
$72
thin orderbook
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
206 days
Venue
Polymarket
6 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026
How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?: <5
0xacff73…c3d5
How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?: 5-6
0x1fc6eb…18c2
How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?: 7-8
0xbab5a9…fdae
How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?: 13-14
0x77e537…3a0c
How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?: >16
0x1ee868…39b1
How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?: 9-10
0xed0620…4105
What moved the line
- Jun 25-6↑8pp18→26¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 1<5↓6pp61→55¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 3>16↑4pp4→8¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 2<5↑3pp55→58¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 45-6↓3pp24→21¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in ai tech
- SpaceX IPO Closing Market Cap: 1.0T-1.5Tlast 3% · 0d
- How many SpaceX launches in May?: 14 or morelast 90% · 5d
- Largest Company end of May?: NVIDIAlast 97% · 6d
- What will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit in May 2026?: ↑ $240last 3% · 8d
- Anthropic valued higher than OpenAI in 2026last 90% · 9d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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