How many SpaceX Starship launches in 2026?
Leader sits at 38% across 7 bound outcomes, runner-up at 35%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Outcomes
7
winner-take-all
Runner-up
35¢
Will the number of U.S. stat
Spread
3pp
contested
24h volume
$57K
liquid
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
162 days
Venue
Kalshi
12 bound
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 12 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 7% of their title tokens — “Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above” vs “Will the number of U.S. states that formally adopt a binding state-level moratorium on data-center development be at least”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 90 after July 6, 2026 and before Jan 1, 2027?
KXHORMUZAVG-27JAN01-A90
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 100 after July 6, 2026 and before Jan 1, 2027?
KXHORMUZAVG-27JAN01-A100
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 80 after July 6, 2026 and before Jan 1, 2027?
KXHORMUZAVG-27JAN01-A80
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 after July 6, 2026 and before Jan 1, 2027?
KXHORMUZAVG-27JAN01-A60
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 70 after July 6, 2026 and before Jan 1, 2027?
KXHORMUZAVG-27JAN01-A70
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 50 after July 6, 2026 and before Jan 1, 2027?
KXHORMUZAVG-27JAN01-A50
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 40 after July 6, 2026 and before Jan 1, 2027?
KXHORMUZAVG-27JAN01-A40
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 110 after July 6, 2026 and before Jan 1, 2027?
KXHORMUZAVG-27JAN01-A110
Cluster 2
Will the number of U.S. states that formally adopt a binding state-level moratorium on data-center development be at least
Will the number of U.S. states that formally adopt a binding state-level moratorium on data-center development be at least 3 in 2026?
KXMORATORIUMCOUNT-26DEC31-AL3
Will the number of U.S. states that formally adopt a binding state-level moratorium on data-center development be at least 4 in 2026?
KXMORATORIUMCOUNT-26DEC31-AL4
Will the number of U.S. states that formally adopt a binding state-level moratorium on data-center development be at least 2 in 2026?
KXMORATORIUMCOUNT-26DEC31-AL2
Will the number of U.S. states that formally adopt a binding state-level moratorium on data-center development be at least 5 in 2026?
KXMORATORIUMCOUNT-26DEC31-AL5
What moved the line
- Jul 22Will the number of U.S. states that formally adopt a binding state-level moratorium on data-center development be at least 3 in 2026?↓12pp30→18¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 19Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 40 after July 6, 2026 and before Jan 1, 2027?↓9pp71→62¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 23Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 40 after July 6, 2026 and before Jan 1, 2027?↓7pp62→55¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 19Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 50 after July 6, 2026 and before Jan 1, 2027?↓7pp51→44¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 23Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 after July 6, 2026 and before Jan 1, 2027?↑6pp24→30¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in ai tech
- Will OpenAI go public?last 52% · 0d
- Will SpaceX IPO in 2026?last 99% · 0d
- Will OpenAI release GPT-5.6 before Jul 15, 2026last 97% · 15d
- Will SpaceX be added to the S&P 500 in Q2 2026last 4% · 22d
- Will SpaceX be assigned to Communication Services in the S&P-500last 95% · 34d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Other questions in ai tech.
In ai tech
Related reading
AI Model Race: Claude Leads, GPT-6 Expected by 2027
Anthropic's Claude is heavily favored as the best AI model in July 2026 (96¢), and OpenAI's GPT-6 release before 2027 is priced at 82¢. These markets reflect intensifying competition and investor focus on AI leadership.
Anthropic Widens Lead in AI Model Race Ahead of OpenAI's GPT-5.6 Release
Anthropic's models are trading at 83¢ to be crowned 'Best AI in July 2026', while OpenAI's GPT-5.6 release has a 73% probability of launching within the next 4 days. The competition is fierce and directly relevant to AI infrastructure spending, compute pricing, and tech sector valuations.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.