How many SpaceX Starship launches in 2026?
Leader sits at 38% across 7 bound outcomes, runner-up at 35%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Outcomes
7
winner-take-all
Runner-up
35¢
Will above 13750000 people e
Spread
3pp
contested
24h volume
$242K
liquid
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
116 days
Venue
Kalshi
15 bound
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 15 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 14% of their title tokens — “Will above 1” vs “Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will above 1
Will above 13500000 people enter Broadway performances in New York City in The 2026–27 Broadway season?
KXBWAYATTENDANCE-27MAY23B-13500000
Will above 13750000 people enter Broadway performances in New York City in The 2026–27 Broadway season?
KXBWAYATTENDANCE-27MAY23B-13750000
Will above 14000000 people enter Broadway performances in New York City in The 2026–27 Broadway season?
KXBWAYATTENDANCE-27MAY23B-14000000
Will above 14700000 people enter Broadway performances in New York City in The 2026–27 Broadway season?
KXBWAYATTENDANCE-27MAY23B-14700000
Will above 14800000 people enter Broadway performances in New York City in The 2026–27 Broadway season?
KXBWAYATTENDANCE-27MAY23B-14800000
Will above 14500000 people enter Broadway performances in New York City in The 2026–27 Broadway season?
KXBWAYATTENDANCE-27MAY23B-14500000
Will above 14250000 people enter Broadway performances in New York City in The 2026–27 Broadway season?
KXBWAYATTENDANCE-27MAY23B-14250000
Will above 14600000 people enter Broadway performances in New York City in The 2026–27 Broadway season?
KXBWAYATTENDANCE-27MAY23B-14600000
Cluster 2
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 40 after July 6, 2026 and before Jan 1, 2027?
KXHORMUZAVG-27JAN01-A40
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 after July 6, 2026 and before Jan 1, 2027?
KXHORMUZAVG-27JAN01-A60
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 70 after July 6, 2026 and before Jan 1, 2027?
KXHORMUZAVG-27JAN01-A70
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 90 after July 6, 2026 and before Jan 1, 2027?
KXHORMUZAVG-27JAN01-A90
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 50 after July 6, 2026 and before Jan 1, 2027?
KXHORMUZAVG-27JAN01-A50
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 100 after July 6, 2026 and before Jan 1, 2027?
KXHORMUZAVG-27JAN01-A100
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 80 after July 6, 2026 and before Jan 1, 2027?
KXHORMUZAVG-27JAN01-A80
What moved the line
- Sep 5Will above 14250000 people enter Broadway performances in New York City in The 2026–27 Broadway season?↓27pp77→50¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 5Will above 14600000 people enter Broadway performances in New York City in The 2026–27 Broadway season?↓23pp47→24¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 5Will above 13750000 people enter Broadway performances in New York City in The 2026–27 Broadway season?↓20pp89→69¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 5Will above 14700000 people enter Broadway performances in New York City in The 2026–27 Broadway season?↓17pp37→20¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 5Will above 14800000 people enter Broadway performances in New York City in The 2026–27 Broadway season?↓15pp30→15¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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