How many SpaceX Starship launches in 2026?
Leader sits at 38% across 7 bound outcomes, runner-up at 35%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Outcomes
7
winner-take-all
Runner-up
35¢
Will the number of lead and
Spread
3pp
contested
24h volume
$147K
liquid
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
94 days
Venue
Kalshi
15 bound
30-day trend
Bracket families
3 clusters across 15 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 13% of their title tokens — “Will the number” vs “Will SpaceX launch another Starship before”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will the number
Will the number of U.S. states that formally adopt a binding state-level moratorium on data-center development be at least 3 in 2026?
KXMORATORIUMCOUNT-26DEC31-AL3
Will the number of lead and galvanized-previously-connected-to-lead (GPCL) service lines fully replaced statewide by Michigan community water supplies, as compiled and published by EGLE from the annual service line replacement reports required by Michigan's Lead and Copper Rule be above 30000 in 2026?
KXMILEAD-26AUG17-A30000
Will the number of U.S. states that formally adopt a binding state-level moratorium on data-center development be at least 5 in 2026?
KXMORATORIUMCOUNT-26DEC31-AL5
Will the number of U.S. states that formally adopt a binding state-level moratorium on data-center development be at least 4 in 2026?
KXMORATORIUMCOUNT-26DEC31-AL4
Will the number of lead and galvanized-previously-connected-to-lead (GPCL) service lines fully replaced statewide by Michigan community water supplies, as compiled and published by EGLE from the annual service line replacement reports required by Michigan's Lead and Copper Rule be above 25000 in 2026?
KXMILEAD-26AUG17-A25000
Will the number of lead and galvanized-previously-connected-to-lead (GPCL) service lines fully replaced statewide by Michigan community water supplies, as compiled and published by EGLE from the annual service line replacement reports required by Michigan's Lead and Copper Rule be above 27500 in 2026?
KXMILEAD-26AUG17-A27500
Will the number of lead and galvanized-previously-connected-to-lead (GPCL) service lines fully replaced statewide by Michigan community water supplies, as compiled and published by EGLE from the annual service line replacement reports required by Michigan's Lead and Copper Rule be above 32500 in 2026?
KXMILEAD-26AUG17-A32500
Cluster 2
Will SpaceX launch another Starship before
Will SpaceX launch another Starship before Oct 1, 2026?
KXSPACEXSTARSHIP-14-26OCT01
Will SpaceX launch another Starship before Sep 29, 2026?
KXSPACEXSTARSHIP-14-26SEP29
Will SpaceX launch another Starship before Oct 16, 2026?
KXSPACEXSTARSHIP-14-26OCT16
Will SpaceX launch another Starship before Sep 30, 2026?
KXSPACEXSTARSHIP-14-26SEP30
Cluster 3
Will the organization-wide number of Democratic Socialists of America members in good standing be above 1
Will the organization-wide number of Democratic Socialists of America members in good standing be above 130000 as reported for December 2026?
KXDSAMEMBERSHIP-26DEC31-A130000
Will the organization-wide number of Democratic Socialists of America members in good standing be above 160000 as reported for December 2026?
KXDSAMEMBERSHIP-26DEC31-A160000
Will the organization-wide number of Democratic Socialists of America members in good standing be above 140000 as reported for December 2026?
KXDSAMEMBERSHIP-26DEC31-A140000
Will the organization-wide number of Democratic Socialists of America members in good standing be above 150000 as reported for December 2026?
KXDSAMEMBERSHIP-26DEC31-A150000
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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