Less than 5 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026
<5 is priced at 60¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 59¢ bid, 60¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 8 inside How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?.
Price history
60¢ current
−16¢Contract brief
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome. The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Outcome
<5
Rank
#1 of 8
Leader
<5 60¢
Range
1¢-60¢
Family volume
$462K
Identifier
0xacff734f...c3d5
Jun 8, 2026, 5:08 AM UTC · 17m ago
Implied probability
Bid
59¢
Ask
60¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$89
Family rank
#1 of 8
8 outcomes · How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Family volume
$462K
Orderbook snapshot
59 / 60¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome. The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Identifier
0xacff734f…c3d5
Event family
How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$462K
Outcomes
8
Highest price
<5 60¢
Current share
20%
<5
polymarket · 0xacff734fd12b552ebab5edb2220cf23c19bda7728b3673a44b0c515a2c60c3d5
5-6
polymarket · 0x1fc6ebc7c289f983c41bbbabcb8f89c40dd6e1775c3fef1d4db27345900918c2
7-8
polymarket · 0xbab5a91f04f1ebe8fb3842b90e0b59c04b59a17f4b7ee67aeb6ad30cdba3fdae
15-16
polymarket · 0x4f14f6c2c59d7e37d47fb3d35c2b952b0f88f2a73bff7b520d8f6837eaa06950
>16
polymarket · 0x1ee868fd07056d7072c8b6f1381939347c1205d755f2e1da9456aa13c80839b1
13-14
polymarket · 0x77e5372080c917e45857e339ff82717efac40ad50cc0f2ea6ee30f5840fb3a0c
9-10
polymarket · 0xed0620605dbb5d1d7097883e9de344f92a35a7d4091d7f8d6337c23b16104105
11-12
polymarket · 0x16ffe828264931ee812ab6ba10c018c5e263506e015b07c51faa49a6272dca87
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.409
Observability
low
Event type
scientific
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.