Will the Republican Party win the IA-02 House seat?

This Iowa-02 House market shows extreme volatility (798% realized vol) and an unusually high implied yield of 223% for the Yes side despite modest 45¢ pricing, suggesting significant uncertainty or potential mispricing relative to fundamentals. The 5¢ drop over seven days combined with very thin 24-hour volume of just $13 against $17.7M open interest indicates illiquidity that may be exaggerating price swings and yield calculations. With 200 days to expiry and a neutral regime score, this market appears to be in early-stage price discovery for a competitive 2026 race, though the extreme realized volatility warrants caution about relying on current odds as predictive.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade