Will the Republicans win the Illinois governor race in 2026?

Prediction markets currently give a 8% probability that Will the Republicans win the Illinois governor race in 2026?. This contract trades at 8¢ on Polymarket.

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8¢
Bid/Ask 7/8¢·Spread 1¢·Vol $26.064·OI $23,972.545·195d remaining
0x71a296ae16844c65e3e65f89958177b74965386e2e46f5519b6c3e64e69ba0b2
7-day price129 snapshots · 5 regime
8¢8¢ current
Apr 126¢Apr 22

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Illinois gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 2156.4%
IY (No) 16.3%
Adj IY 943%
CRI 12
LAS 0.13
▶ Full indicator table (5)
IndicatorValue
IY (Yes)2156.4%
IY (No)16.3%
Adj IY943%
CRI12
LAS0.13

Regime

Label
neutral
Score
0.477
Spread
1¢
Computed
4/22/2026, 8:24:44 AM
Observability mediumEvent type political
Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/22/2026, 8:23:24 AM

Trade

View on polymarketsf trade 0x71a296ae16844c65e3e65f89958177b74965386e2e46f5519b6c3e64e69ba0b2 yes 100

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