Will the Republican Party win the IN-09 House seat?

The Republican contract is pricing in a dominant 90% win probability for IN-09, yet the market shows zero 24-hour volume with only $16,883 in open interest, suggesting minimal liquidity and potentially stale pricing. The extreme 1642% implied yield on the "No" side is a classic illiquidity artifact—the tiny $1 spread masks the reality that actually moving this market would require significant capital. With 200 days to expiration and a high cliff risk index of 9, this market appears to be a low-conviction Republican lean in a district that likely has strong GOP fundamentals, but the near-total absence of trading activity means the 90¢ price should be treated as indicative rather than a reliable probability estimate.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

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