What is the current probability for "Ind. Medellin vs Boyaca Chico Winner?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 10¢ (10% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on May 6, 2026. 15 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Ind. Medellin vs Boyaca Chico Winner?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 25112.7% and 245.6% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Ind. Medellin vs Boyaca Chico Winner?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Ind. Medellin vs Boyaca Chico Winner?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 10% probability that Ind. Medellin vs Boyaca Chico Winner?. This contract trades at 10¢ on Kalshi, closing May 6, 2026. This market displays severe illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and open interest, making the 0¢ price unreliable despite the astronomical 50,183% implied yield on the Yes side.

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10¢

Bid/Ask 9/10¢·Spread 1¢·Vol $693.37·OI $2,067.13·Closes May 6, 2026·15d remaining

KXDIMAYORGAME-26APR22DIMCHI-CHI

7-day price47 snapshots · 16 regime

10¢9¢ current

Apr 194¢Apr 22

Analysis

2d ago

This market displays severe illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and open interest, making the 0¢ price unreliable despite the astronomical 50,183% implied yield on the Yes side. The 71¢ spread is exceptionally wide relative to the quoted price, and the high Cliff Risk Index of 24 suggests potential resolution complications—notably, the match was originally scheduled for April 22, 2026 but the current close date is May 6, 2026, indicating the game may have been postponed or rescheduled. With only 17 days to expiry and no trading activity, this market lacks sufficient liquidity for meaningful analysis.

Resolution rules

If Boyaca Chico wins the Ind. Medellin vs Boyaca Chico professional Colombian Liga DIMAYOR soccer game originally scheduled for Apr 22, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 25112.7%

IY (No) 245.6%

Adj IY 22323%

CRI 10

RV 1945%

VR 0.97

▶ Full indicator table (9)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	25112.7%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	245.6%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	22323%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	10	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	1945%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	0.97	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	1.6/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	-0.0%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.11	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Computed

4/22/2026, 6:44:10 AM

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/22/2026, 6:38:24 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXDIMAYORGAME-26APR22DIMCHI-CHI yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →