What is the current probability for "Ink FDV above $250M one day after launch?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 86¢ (86% implied probability) on Polymarket. It closes on January 1, 2027. 244 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Ink FDV above $250M one day after launch?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 24.3% and 917.3% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Ink FDV above $250M one day after launch?"?

This market trades on Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Ink FDV above $250M one day after launch?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 86% probability that Ink FDV above $250M one day after launch?. This contract trades at 86¢ on Polymarket, closing January 1, 2027.

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86¢

Bid/Ask 84/88¢·Spread 4¢·Vol $0·OI $5,455.526·Closes Jan 1, 2027·244d remaining

0xad257f63905baaec310fc3fe86385ede38c80415354fafbb5b3f035a8239a6f0

7-day price301 snapshots · 12 regime

87¢86¢ current

Apr 848¢Apr 30

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Ink's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Ink (http://inkonchain.com/) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Indicators

IY (Yes) 24.3%

IY (No) 917.3%

Adj IY 875%

CRI 6

RV 186%

VR 3.63

▶ Full indicator table (9)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	24.3%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	917.3%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	875%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	6	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	186%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	3.63	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	1.0/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	1.3%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.05	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Computed

5/1/2026, 1:49:33 PM

Observability mediumEvent type financial

Has orderbookIndicators computed 5/1/2026, 1:38:57 PM

Trade

View on polymarket →sf trade 0xad257f63905baaec310fc3fe86385ede38c80415354fafbb5b3f035a8239a6f0 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

Trade

Related concepts

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