What is the current probability for "Ittihad Kalba vs Baniyas Winner?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 28¢ (28% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on May 7, 2026. 15 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Ittihad Kalba vs Baniyas Winner?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 7988.7% and 712.8% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Ittihad Kalba vs Baniyas Winner?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Ittihad Kalba vs Baniyas Winner?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 28% probability that Ittihad Kalba vs Baniyas Winner?. This contract trades at 28¢ on Kalshi, closing May 7, 2026. This market appears to have a critical data integrity issue: the listed price of 0¢ contradicts the 7-day price movement showing 5¢, and the massive 89¢ spread with zero volume and open interest suggests either a stale quote or a market that has effectively ceased trading.

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28¢mid

Bid/Ask 23/33¢·Spread 10¢·Vol $0·OI $0·Closes May 7, 2026·15d remaining

KXUAEPLGAME-26APR23ITTBNY-TIE

7-day price8 snapshots · 2 regime

23¢23¢ current

Apr 174¢Apr 21

Analysis

5d ago

This market appears to have a critical data integrity issue: the listed price of 0¢ contradicts the 7-day price movement showing 5¢, and the massive 89¢ spread with zero volume and open interest suggests either a stale quote or a market that has effectively ceased trading. The astronomical implied yield of 42,721% on the Yes side is mathematically inconsistent with a 0¢ price and indicates the underlying data may be corrupted or the market mechanics are malfunctioning. With 21 days to expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 24, traders should avoid this venue until liquidity returns and pricing normalizes.

Resolution rules

If Tie wins the Ittihad Kalba vs Baniyas professional UAE Pro League soccer game originally scheduled for Apr 23, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 7988.7%

IY (No) 712.8%

Adj IY 3994%

CRI 3

Overround -0.1%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	7988.7%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	712.8%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	3994%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	3	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	-0.1%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

10¢

Computed

4/22/2026, 7:05:16 AM

Indicators computed 4/22/2026, 6:53:24 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXUAEPLGAME-26APR23ITTBNY-TIE yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →