Will Japan GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 0.0% and 0.2%?

This market shows extreme distress signals with a 32¢ spread, zero 24-hour volume, and a realized volatility of 2030% despite only $98 in open interest, suggesting severe illiquidity and potential mispricing. The Yes position's 4201% implied yield is artificially inflated due to the thin market and low price (21¢), while the price has crashed 50% over seven days (42¢ to 21¢), indicating either new bearish information about Japanese growth or simply liquidity evaporation. With only 33 days to resolution and a Cliff Risk Index of 4, this market is too illiquid to trade meaningfully and likely reflects speculative positioning rather than genuine probability assessment.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Year-over-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 19, 2026. The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html

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Trade