Will the Republican Party win the KS-02 House seat?

The market is pricing in a heavily favored Republican outcome at 87¢ with minimal recent price movement (down just 1¢ over seven days), but the extreme 1217% implied yield on the "No" side signals severe illiquidity and potential mispricing on the contrarian position. With zero 24-hour volume despite $20k open interest and a modest 2¢ spread, this appears to be a low-liquidity market where the consensus view dominates; the 7 Cliff Risk Index suggests meaningful uncertainty could emerge closer to the 201-day expiration. The 27.2% yield on the Republican side is reasonable given the timeframe, but traders should be cautious about the reliability of these prices given the lack of recent trading activity.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KS-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

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