Ledger IPO closing market cap above $3B?

This Ledger IPO market shows extreme volatility (765% realized vol) with a notably wide 16¢ spread and zero 24-hour volume, suggesting very thin liquidity despite $318k open interest. The Yes side offers an outsized 104% implied yield, but this appears driven by tail risk pricing rather than genuine conviction—the market has declined from 38¢ to 32¢ over seven days, and the high vol ratio (6.65) indicates options are pricing in substantial uncertainty around a 2028 event. With 624 days to expiration and a cliff risk index of 2, the primary risk is binary execution (whether Ledger IPOs at all), making this more of a binary bet on IPO timing than a traditional valuation market.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the official closing price for Ledger's market capitalization on its first trading day is above the value specified in the title. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Ledger’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading.

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