Will Nick Albares be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Louisiana?
Prediction markets currently give a 15% probability that Will Nick Albares be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Louisiana?. This contract trades at 15¢ on Polymarket, closing May 16, 2026. Nick Albares' nomination odds have declined 16% over the past week (from 19¢ to 16¢), suggesting deteriorating market confidence despite the contract still offering an extreme 6,604% implied yield on a "Yes" resolution.
Analysis
Nick Albares' nomination odds have declined 16% over the past week (from 19¢ to 16¢), suggesting deteriorating market confidence despite the contract still offering an extreme 6,604% implied yield on a "Yes" resolution. The 741% realized volatility and cliff risk index of 5 indicate severe price instability, while the modest $66.66 daily volume and 6¢ spread suggest this is an illiquid, speculative position where the astronomical yield reflects extreme tail-risk pricing rather than genuine probability assessment. With only 29 days until expiry and high information arrival (0.9/hour), this market appears to be pricing in a very unlikely but not impossible scenario.
Also on kalshi at 15¢(Δ 0¢)
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Louisiana. If no 2026 Louisiana Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Louisiana Democratic Party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
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sf trade 0x51531de8c91851327a5c941d89c5b6210f507536e55f64d337995bf14dc204c0 yes 100