Alabama Democratic Senate Primary Winner
Leader sits at 91% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 8%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Kyle Sweetser
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
8¢
Dakarai Larriett
Spread
83pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$3K
modest
Closes
May 19, 2026
0 days
Venue
Polymarket
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Alabama Democratic Senate Primary Winner
Analysis
The 32% probability represents traders' aggregate assessment that a specific Alabama Democratic Senate candidate will win their party's primary election. This probability reflects uncertainty about candidate positioning, voter preferences, and whether a clear frontrunner has emerged in the state's Democratic primary landscape. The main factors driving this level include the number and strength of competing candidates, recent polling data, and fundraising performance. The primary election date will be the decisive catalyst that resolves this uncertainty, determining which candidate advances to the general election. Between now and the primary, candidate endorsements, debate performances, and ground organization developments will likely shift market expectations.
- ›Number of competing Democratic candidates and whether a consensus frontrunner has consolidated support
- ›Recent polling data showing vote share distribution among Democratic primary voters
- ›Candidate fundraising totals and spending levels relative to competitors
- ›Whether a major endorsement or organizational backing has shifted in favor of one candidate
- ›Historical turnout patterns in Alabama Democratic primaries and demographic composition of likely voters
What moved the line
- Jun 16Dakarai Larriett↑25pp8→33¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 16Kyle Sweetser↑16pp2→18¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 17Dakarai Larriett↓16pp33→17¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in election 2026
- AZ-05 House Election Winnerlast 81% · 0d
- MN-08 House Election Winnerlast 73% · 0d
- Louisiana Democratic Senate Primary Winnerlast 89% · 0d
- KY-04 House Election Winnerlast 90% · 0d
- Lebanon Parliamentary Election Winnerlast 5% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (91% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In election 2026
Related reading
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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