Louisiana Democratic Senate Primary Winner
Leader sits at 89% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 10%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Jamie Davis Jr.
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
10¢
Nick Albares
Spread
79pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$153
thin orderbook
Closes
May 16, 2026
0 days
Venue
Polymarket
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Louisiana Democratic Senate Primary Winner
Analysis
The 82% probability represents the market's assessment that a particular candidate will win the Louisiana Democratic Senate primary. This elevated level reflects confidence in that candidate's position relative to alternatives. The main factors supporting this probability are likely the candidate's polling lead, name recognition, or organizational advantages within the state Democratic apparatus. Conversely, the probability could shift downward if polling narrows, a rival candidate gains funding or endorsements, or voter preferences change as the primary approaches. The primary election date will ultimately resolve this outcome, though pre-election developments—such as debate performances, funding reports, or demographic shifts in voter enthusiasm—could meaningfully adjust the market's confidence level beforehand.
- ›The leading candidate holds an 82% implied probability versus 13% for the runner-up, indicating a significant but not overwhelming advantage with meaningful uncertainty remaining
- ›Primary election timing and whether voting has already begun or remains weeks away will determine how much opportunity exists for late-breaking shifts in voter support
- ›Polling data convergence or divergence in weeks preceding the primary will serve as a concrete signal of whether the frontrunner's position is solidifying or eroding
- ›Fundraising and endorsement announcements targeting the runner-up could signal organizational momentum that contradicts the current market probability
- ›Voter turnout patterns and demographic composition of actual primary voters, once available, will either confirm or challenge pre-election market expectations
What moved the line
- Jun 16Nick Albares↑42pp1→43¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 17Nick Albares↓9pp43→34¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 17Jamie Davis Jr.↓6pp96→90¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 18Jamie Davis Jr.↑5pp90→95¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 18Nick Albares↑3pp34→37¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (89% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In election 2026
Related reading
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California & LA Primaries Heat Up: Hilton Surges, Pratt Fades
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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