SimpleFunctions
PolymarketJan 1, 2027237 days left

MagicBlock FDV above $100M one day after launch?

This contract is priced at 85¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 77¢ bid, 93¢ ask, 16¢ spread.

Implied probability

85¢
$952 volume
$4K liquidity
4% of event volume

Event outcomes

7

Family volume

$23K

Best sibling

$20M 94¢

Ticker

0x52a2462a…65c8

Market snapshot

$100M in market context.

This page tracks the Polymarket contract for MagicBlock FDV above $100M one day after launch?. The displayed quote is 85¢ from the latest venue quote. The cached market record reports reported volume of $952. In the MagicBlock FDV above ___ one day after launch? family, this outcome ranks #4 of 7 by current quote across 7 sibling outcomes. The indicator bundle was refreshed May 9, 2026, 8:08 AM UTC.

Outcome

$100M

Family rank

#4 of 7

Venue

Polymarket

Current quote

85¢

Quote source

Latest venue quote

Timing

Listed until Jan 1, 2027

Reported volume

$952

Family context

7 outcomes · MagicBlock FDV above ___ one day after launch?

Quote range

12¢-96¢

Family leader

$10M 96¢

Last updated

May 9, 2026, 8:08 AM UTC · 9m ago

Venue identifier: 0x52a2462abb6b679a4b7fb438bfb65236c16171c60067e84d64679def013c65c8. Family volume: $23K.

Price history

85¢ current

+32¢
25¢50¢75¢100¢
Apr 9, 2026May 7, 2026

Orderbook snapshot

77 / 93¢

Polymarket
16¢ spread
BidSize
77¢9
76¢15
75¢21
72¢8
71¢15
70¢308
34¢24
33¢27
AskSize
93¢9
95¢141
96¢1.0K
97¢7
98¢5.3K
99¢1.1K

Contract terms

Resolution, venue, and identifiers.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of MagicBlock's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If MagicBlock (https://x.com/magicblock) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Venue

Polymarket

Closes

Jan 1, 2027

Identifier

0x52a2462a…65c8

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

27.2%

IY (No)

874.0%

Adj IY

355%

CRI

6

Overround

4.0%

LAS

0.19

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

27.2%
874.0%
Adj IY
355%
6
Overround
4.0%
LAS
0.19

Odds pages

Related prediction questions

Browse odds

Related readings

Matched from SimpleFunctions blog, opinions, technical guides, concepts, and learn pages.

Browse library
Opinionanalysis

Information Finance Has Arrived: A Material Map of Prediction Markets in Q2 2026

Combined Kalshi + Polymarket volume hit $66B in just four months of 2026 — already greater than the entire 2025 industry total. Bernstein projects $1T by 2030. Two venues hold 95% of US share. The distribution layer fragmented across nine retail surfaces. AI agents are 30% of Polymarket wallet activ

Opinioncomparison

Kalshi vs Polymarket: Mechanics, Fees, Regulation, Liquidity (2026)

Side-by-side comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket in 2026. Fee math, calibration data, withdrawal speed, and a decision tree for picking the right venue.

Blogmarkets

Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Should You Trade?

In-depth comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket for prediction market traders. Regulatory structure, liquidity, fees, API tooling, and cross-venue trading with SimpleFunctions.

Blogtech

MCP Servers for Prediction Markets: Connect Claude Code to Kalshi and Polymarket

Connect Claude Code, Cursor, or Cline to Kalshi and Polymarket prediction markets via MCP. One-line setup, 18 tools, real-time market data for AI agents.

Conceptmethodology

Liquidity Migration Across Resolution: Where the Money Goes When a Market Closes

When a flagship prediction market closes, the capital that was in it migrates to next-period siblings, adjacent categories, or off the venue entirely. Three migration patterns and the receiving-market opportunity.

Opinionessay

Prediction market liquidity: why depth matters more than volume for serious traders

Why orderbook depth matters more than volume for prediction market traders. Real Kalshi examples, liquidity scoring framework, and how to avoid slippage.

SimpleFunctions context

Index, screen, query, and monitor.

Open index