MagicBlock FDV above ___ one day after launch?
Leader sits at 95% across 7 bound outcomes, runner-up at 94%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
$10M
Outcomes
7
winner-take-all
Runner-up
94¢
$20M
Spread
1pp
contested
24h volume
$47
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
237 days
Venue
Polymarket
7 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
MagicBlock FDV above ___ one day after launch
MagicBlock FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $10M
0xeece93…f50e
MagicBlock FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $200M
0x7708b3…f8cc
MagicBlock FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $60M
0x4f622f…8518
MagicBlock FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $40M
0xd8430f…88b9
MagicBlock FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $20M
0x8ebc34…2e4d
MagicBlock FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $300M
0x558dcb…ea5b
MagicBlock FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $100M
0x52a246…65c8
Analysis
This contract predicts whether MagicBlock will achieve a fully diluted valuation above $10 million within one day of its launch. The current 78% probability reflects market confidence in this threshold being reached, though substantial disagreement exists among traders (with runner-up odds at 70%). The valuation outcome depends primarily on launch timing and initial market reception, including developer adoption signals and comparison to peer token launches. Key catalysts include the announced launch date and early trading volume patterns that establish price discovery. Market participants are also monitoring competing projects in similar categories, which show varying confidence levels across different valuation thresholds—from $50M floors priced at 94 cents to $1B milestones at just 17 cents, suggesting probability varies significantly with scale assumptions.
- ›MagicBlock's launch date remains unconfirmed; any delay or acceleration would materially affect the probability timeline
- ›Early trading volume and exchange listings on day one will directly determine if sufficient liquidity exists to establish a $10M+ FDV
- ›Comparable projects show wide valuation ranges at launch; peer performance in recent weeks could shift baseline expectations
- ›Developer documentation quality and ecosystem readiness at launch influence initial adoption metrics that drive valuation
- ›Broader market conditions on launch day, including crypto market sentiment and competing token events, affect capital allocation pressure
What moved the line
- May 6$100M↑33pp54→87¢ · Polymarket
- May 6$10M↑28pp66→94¢ · Polymarket
- May 6$60M↑22pp59→81¢ · Polymarket
- May 6$200M↑22pp29→51¢ · Polymarket
- May 2$40M↑16pp37→53¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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