Will Ken Capron win the 2026 Maine Governor Republican primary election?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $2.27M open interest, suggesting the position is largely illiquid and potentially trapped. The 9¢ price implies only a 9% probability for Capron, but the astronomical 6,967% implied yield on the Yes side indicates severe mispricing or a highly speculative long position with minimal realistic upside. With 53 days to expiry and a wide 14¢ spread, this appears to be a niche bet with little market activity, making it difficult to assess whether the price reflects genuine probability or simply reflects low liquidity and potential whale positioning.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Maine, scheduled to take place on June 9, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Maine Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Maine Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

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