What is the current probability for "Mainz vs Bayern Munich Winner?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 61¢ (61% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on May 9, 2026. 17 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Mainz vs Bayern Munich Winner?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 1408.6% and 3169.3% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Mainz vs Bayern Munich Winner?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Mainz vs Bayern Munich Winner?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 61% probability that Mainz vs Bayern Munich Winner?. This contract trades at 61¢ on Kalshi, closing May 9, 2026. This market displays extreme illiquidity and pricing distortion typical of low-volume prediction markets, with zero 24-hour volume despite $2.62 open interest and a massive 70¢ bid-ask spread.

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61¢

Bid/Ask 60/61¢·Spread 1¢·Vol $12,050.67·OI $99,030.97·Closes May 9, 2026·17d remaining

KXBUNDESLIGAGAME-26APR25M05BMU-BMU

7-day price69 snapshots · 46 regime

65¢60¢ current

Apr 185¢Apr 22

Analysis

4d ago

This market displays extreme illiquidity and pricing distortion typical of low-volume prediction markets, with zero 24-hour volume despite $2.62 open interest and a massive 70¢ bid-ask spread. The 75¢ Bayern Munich price reflects a reasonable favorite position for one of Germany's elite clubs, but the astronomical 22,561% implied yield on the Yes side signals severe mispricing—likely a result of minimal trading activity rather than genuine market consensus. With only 21 days to resolution and a moderate cliff risk index of 13, traders should be cautious of wide slippage and potential sharp repricing once the match date approaches or if any volume materializes.

Resolution rules

If Bayern Munich wins the Mainz vs Bayern Munich professional Bundesliga soccer game originally scheduled for Apr 25, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 1408.6%

IY (No) 3169.3%

Adj IY 3116%

CRI 2

RV 113%

VR 0.30

▶ Full indicator table (9)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	1408.6%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	3169.3%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	3116%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	2	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	113%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	0.30	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	0.4/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	-0.0%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.02	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

1¢

Computed

4/22/2026, 7:07:04 AM

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/22/2026, 6:53:24 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXBUNDESLIGAGAME-26APR25M05BMU-BMU yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →