What is the current probability for "Mazatlan vs Toluca Winner?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 18¢ (18% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on May 7, 2026. 15 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Mazatlan vs Toluca Winner?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 12172.5% and 510.6% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Mazatlan vs Toluca Winner?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Mazatlan vs Toluca Winner?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 18% probability that Mazatlan vs Toluca Winner?. This contract trades at 18¢ on Kalshi, closing May 7, 2026.

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18¢

Bid/Ask 17/18¢·Spread 1¢·Vol $456.26·OI $502·Closes May 7, 2026·15d remaining

KXLIGAMXGAME-26APR22MAZTOL-TIE

7-day price76 snapshots · 4 regime

17¢17¢ current

Apr 2013¢Apr 22

Resolution rules

If Tie wins the Mazatlan vs Toluca professional Liga MX soccer game originally scheduled for Apr 22, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 12172.5%

IY (No) 510.6%

Adj IY 11457%

CRI 5

RV 1010%

VR 0.80

▶ Full indicator table (9)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	12172.5%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	510.6%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	11457%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	5	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	1010%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	0.80	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	1.2/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	-0.0%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.06	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

1¢

Computed

4/22/2026, 9:46:43 AM

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/22/2026, 9:38:23 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXLIGAMXGAME-26APR22MAZTOL-TIE yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

Trade

Related concepts

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