Will the Republican Party win the MD-05 House seat?

The Republican contract is severely mispriced at 7¢, implying only a 7% win probability in Maryland's 5th district—a heavily Democratic seat where the implied yield of 2,416.8% for Yes positions suggests extreme undervaluation relative to historical Republican performance in this district. With zero 24-hour volume despite $33.6M in open interest and a tight 1¢ spread, this appears to be a liquidity trap where the low price reflects minimal recent trading rather than genuine market consensus. The neutral regime score and moderate cliff risk index (13) suggest the market lacks conviction, making this potentially exploitable for contrarian traders familiar with MD-05's electoral fundamentals.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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Regime

Trade