MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?

Prediction markets currently give a 4% probability that MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?. This contract trades at 4¢ on Polymarket.

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4¢
Bid/Ask 4/4¢·Spread 0¢·Vol $477.205·OI $24,588.075·70d remaining
0xb2abfc4e48334d87681240cd6a7e63c728e13973fbd68951b45bc86d6c4491e4
7-day price19 snapshots · 73 regime
4¢4¢ current
Apr 83¢Apr 20

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of MegaETH's token is greater than $4,000,000,000 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." For the purposes of this market "locked" tokens or non-swappable tokens will not be considered a launch. "1 day after launch" is defined as 24 hours after launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If MegaETH doesn't launch a token by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."

Indicators

IY (Yes) 12545.1%
IY (No) 21.8%
Adj IY 6273%
CRI 24
Overround 0.8%
▶ Full indicator table (5)
IndicatorValue
IY (Yes)12545.1%
IY (No)21.8%
Adj IY6273%
CRI24
Overround0.8%

Regime

Label
neutral
Score
0.5
Spread
0¢
Computed
4/22/2026, 8:22:00 AM
Observability mediumEvent type financial
Indicators computed 4/22/2026, 8:08:24 AM

Trade

View on polymarketsf trade 0xb2abfc4e48334d87681240cd6a7e63c728e13973fbd68951b45bc86d6c4491e4 yes 100

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