Will Casey Armitage be the Republican Nominee for MI-10?
Prediction markets currently give a 7% probability that Will Casey Armitage be the Republican Nominee for MI-10?. This contract trades at 7¢ on Polymarket, closing August 4, 2026. This market displays extreme yield asymmetry with a 3850% implied yield for Yes positions versus 29.1% for No, suggesting severe underpricing of Armitage's nomination chances relative to the risk-adjusted return of 1925%.
Analysis
This market displays extreme yield asymmetry with a 3850% implied yield for Yes positions versus 29.1% for No, suggesting severe underpricing of Armitage's nomination chances relative to the risk-adjusted return of 1925%. The extraordinarily high yield combined with low 24-hour volume of just $2.62 and moderate open interest of $10.66K indicates thin liquidity that could amplify price swings, particularly given the 12 Cliff Risk Index score and imminent August 4, 2026 expiration just 109 days away. The flat 7-day price action at 8¢ with a 3¢ spread suggests the market has settled into a stable but potentially mispriced equilibrium, making this a high-risk/high-reward opportunity for informed bettors with conviction on Armitage's nomination prospects.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the MI-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0xd4b446f7421412fe0241448a8eca9a36a9fc20e1cdb811f25c375caa4e7d065f yes 100