Will Bobby Witt Jr. win the 2026 American League MVP Award?
Prediction markets currently give a 14% probability that Will Bobby Witt Jr. win the 2026 American League MVP Award?. This contract trades at 14¢ on Polymarket, closing November 13, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $823k open interest and a wide 50¢ spread, suggesting the $0.43 price may not reflect true consensus.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $823k open interest and a wide 50¢ spread, suggesting the $0.43 price may not reflect true consensus. The 2084% realized volatility and dramatic 22¢ to 46¢ weekly price swing indicate highly unstable pricing, while the 173% annualized yield on both sides reflects the illiquidity premium rather than genuine edge. With 211 days to expiration and a neutral regime, this appears to be a thin, speculative position rather than an efficiently-priced market.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 American League Most Valuable Player Award. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0x43990f2943e63fff7fa48826d1abef25b69b9e5e2d6da59309c459c76ce22da9 yes 100