Will Cal Raleigh win the 2026 American League MVP Award?
Prediction markets currently give a 2% probability that Will Cal Raleigh win the 2026 American League MVP Award?. This contract trades at 2¢ on Polymarket, closing November 13, 2026. Cal Raleigh's MVP odds have surged 200% over the past week (from 8¢ to 24¢), suggesting either improved performance data or shifting market sentiment, though the $0 24-hour volume indicates this movement may reflect thin liquidity rather than conviction trading.
Analysis
Cal Raleigh's MVP odds have surged 200% over the past week (from 8¢ to 24¢), suggesting either improved performance data or shifting market sentiment, though the $0 24-hour volume indicates this movement may reflect thin liquidity rather than conviction trading. The 44¢ spread is notably wide relative to the 23¢ midpoint, and the 468% implied yield on YES positions signals extreme mispricing risk—typical for low-volume niche sports markets with over 200 days to expiry. With only $920k open interest and a Cliff Risk Index of 3, this market lacks the depth to reliably price a mid-tier MVP candidate, making it vulnerable to sharp moves on injury news or breakout seasons.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 American League Most Valuable Player Award. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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Trade
sf trade 0x5103ea1f48f4f29a9b7fbb03c97149406504cf9eb7f2bccf233fd24b4360271a yes 100