Will Nolan McLean win the 2026 NL Cy Young Award?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $1.56M open interest, suggesting the position is largely illocked or held by a small number of traders. The 12¢ spread is notably wide relative to the 10¢ midpoint, and the astronomical 1567% implied yield on the yes side indicates severe mispricing or reflects the speculative nature of betting on a relatively unknown pitcher two years out. The 1747% realized volatility and 9/10 cliff risk index signal this is an unstable, thinly-traded market where price movements may not reflect genuine probability shifts but rather sporadic order flow.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 National League Cy Young Award. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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